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US forces enter Iran by April 30?

OpenPolitics
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Politics1mo

50%

chance of Yes

50¢

Yes

50¢

No

$85K volume1,367 traders1mo

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Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.

Oracle ResolutionUMA Oracle

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Market Info

CategoryPolitics
End DateApr 30, 2026
Time Left1mo
Volume$85K
Traders1,367

Resolution Info

ModeAuto Oracle
ResolvesApr 30, 2026