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What Happens When a Prediction Market Resolves: The Complete Process

OraclBet Team
March 30, 2026
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## The Resolution Lifecycle

Understanding how prediction markets resolve is crucial for every trader. Here's exactly what happens from market creation to final payout on OraclBet.

## Step 1: Market Creation

When a market is created, the following are set permanently: - **Question**: The exact binary question being asked - **End date**: When the market closes for trading - **Resolution criteria**: Specific conditions for Yes or No outcome - **Oracle configuration**: Which data sources will determine the outcome

These parameters cannot be changed after creation — this is the foundation of fair resolution.

## Step 2: Trading Period

During the trading period: - Traders buy and sell Yes and No shares - Prices move to reflect the crowd's probability estimate - Both LMSR (instant) and on-chain order book trading are available - The market remains active until the end date

## Step 3: Market Expiry

When the end date arrives: - Trading stops - No new positions can be opened - The oracle resolution process begins

## Step 4: Oracle Resolution

OraclBet's oracle cron runs every 5 minutes, checking expired markets:

### For Crypto Markets 1. Query Chainlink on-chain price feed on Polygon 2. If unavailable, check CoinGecko API 3. If unavailable, check CoinMarketCap API 4. Compare actual price against the market's threshold condition

### For Economic Markets 1. Query FRED API for the relevant economic indicator 2. Cross-reference with Yahoo Finance 3. Compare against the market's condition

### For Sports Markets 1. Query ESPN API for game/tournament results 2. Verify with Football-Data.org (for soccer) 3. Cross-reference with The Odds API

### For Other Markets (Politics, Science, Entertainment) 1. Query GNews API for relevant news evidence 2. Check Wikipedia for verified outcomes 3. Evaluate evidence against resolution criteria

## Step 5: Evidence Storage

Before resolving, the oracle system: - Records the source data used for resolution - Stores evidence hash on-chain - Links to the full evidence (API responses, article URLs) - This creates a permanent, auditable resolution trail

## Step 6: Resolution Proposal

The oracle proposes a resolution (Yes or No) based on the evidence. This is recorded on-chain via the prediction market smart contract.

## Step 7: Dispute Window

After resolution is proposed: - A brief dispute window opens (typically 24-48 hours) - Anyone can challenge the resolution with counter-evidence - If challenged, additional oracle sources are consulted - If the dispute is valid, resolution is corrected

## Step 8: Finalization

After the dispute window closes: - Resolution is finalized on-chain - It becomes immutable — cannot be changed

## Step 9: Payout

Once finalized: - **Yes shares** pay $1.00 if the market resolved Yes, $0.00 if No - **No shares** pay $1.00 if the market resolved No, $0.00 if Yes - Payouts are automatic — no need to claim manually - USDC is credited to your account balance

## Special Cases

### Market Voiding In rare cases, a market may be voided if: - The question becomes unanswerable (event cancelled) - No oracle data is available for resolution - A critical issue is discovered with the resolution criteria

Voided markets return all invested capital to traders.

### Resolution Delays If oracle data isn't immediately available (e.g., election results still being counted), resolution may be delayed until authoritative data is published. The market remains closed for trading during this period.

## Conclusion

OraclBet's resolution process is designed for maximum transparency and fairness. Immutable resolution criteria, multi-source oracle verification, dispute windows, and on-chain evidence storage ensure that every market is resolved accurately. Understanding this process helps traders evaluate markets and trade with confidence.